U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Remains Inverted Despite Glimpses of Hope

February 6, 2023

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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Remains Inverted Despite Glimpses of Hope

U.S. stock futures fell ahead of another busy week of gains and speeches – first and foremost, from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, after last week's stronger-than-expected jobs report fueled speculation of further more robust Fed rate hikes.

Today, investors got their hands on the latest financial results from Activision Blizzard, Cummins, Simon Property Group, Take-Two Interactive Software and Tyson Foods. Other companies reporting earnings this week include Walt Disney (DIS), BP (BP), DuPont (DD), CVS Health (CVS), Uber (UBER), AbbVie (ABBV), PayPal (PYPL) and Yum! brands.

On Friday, major stock indexes closed lower after the release of the mentioned above strong jobs data in the U.S. The Dow Jones fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 lost 1% and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent, the Nasdaq rose 3.3 percent and the Dow fell 0.2 percent. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note settled at 4.39%, with the yield curve inverted. The dollar index rose 1.2% as the greenback strengthened against the euro.

Commoditywise, crude oil prices fell to 3-week lows in a volatile session on fears interest rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe would weigh on their economies. Light sweet crude is now $73.52 per barrel. Gold (CAUUSD) prices retreated a bit, with the price of gold dipping 2.5% to $1,865 per ounce. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and other major cryptocurrencies are trading somewhat lower.

Meanwhile, European shares are looking South, led down by Aurubis AG, the continent's largest copper producer, while concerns over a possible extension of the global rate hike cycle kept investors on guard.

At the time of writing, the pan-European STOXX 600 index is down 0.8%, retreating from a 9-month high touched on Friday, the last day of a two-week rally in the U.S. and eurozone likely on optimism to avoid a recession. All sector indexes are trending lower, led by rate-sensitive real estate and technology, both down about 2%.

Concerns about heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China also weighed on sentiment, with China-focused luxury goods makers Hermes International (HRMS.PA), LVMH (LVMH.PA) and Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA (CFR.S) all down more than 1%.