Despite JPMorgan’ Analyst Opinion that Bitcoin Halving Can Cause its Price Correction, the Event is Historically Bullish for BTC Price

According to Forbes, skyrocketing of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and other cryptocurrencies is a bad sign for USD. The media recently wrote about the formation of the "death spiral" for the dollar due to the growth of the U.S. national debt, which keeps increasing by one trillion every hundred days (as many know, now it is approximately 34 trillion). According to the Forbes article, if the U.S. national debt will increase at the same rapid pace, the surge of cryptocurrencies will go parabolic.

The expected halving in April is seen as an additional catalyst for BTC growth. However, there are other opinions. According to analysts at JPMorgan, since the halving could negatively impact the profitability of Bitcoin miners due to lower rewards and higher production costs, Bitcoin could correct down to $42K. Historically, the cost of Bitcoin mining serves as the lower bound for the price of the underlying token. The center point of JPMorgan's estimated mining cost range was $26.5K, which would double to $53K after halving.

We don't see much reason to believe this forecast, however, as it breaks the causality link in our opinion. Halving is a periodic event that Bitcoin's creators have incorporated into its algorithm, which aims to create a shortage of supply of coins on the market, which will eventually push its price most likely up – not down. All other arguments tend to be considered as secondary.